As this is NatSec Daily’s last edition of 2021, we wanted to reflect on the key theme we heard over and over this year: América is clearly wrestling with the true limits of its power.
By Político – Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey
Dec 17, 2021
Folks we talked to repeatedly mentioned the following: There were coups in Sudan and Myanmar the U.S. could do little about, a war in Ethiopia it has struggled to curb, an Iran deal it failed to reenter, threats from Russia and China it strained to deter, a pandemic it couldn’t tame at home or abroad, the large-scale global climate reforms it only partly catalyzed, and a chaotic Afghan collapse its departure precipitated. Oh, and before JOE BIDEN got to put “President” ahead of his name, there was that whole Jan. 6 insurrection that tarnished America’s image as the world’s democratic example.
It’s not like the U.S. ever had the luxury of achieving all of its goals whenever it wanted. And America has gone through very tough times before, arguably far more so than today. Think back to the reactions to the Vietnam and Iraq Wars, or that sense of national helplessness during the Iranian hostage crisis. Plus, challenges today aren’t like those of yesteryear – they’re transnational, they’re interconnected and they move quickly.
Despite all that, many we spoke with – members of both parties, U.S. and foreign officials, and analysts – couldn’t shake the feeling that 2021 was a humbling year for América. Not since the halcyon days of the immediate post-Cold War era has such a powerful nation moiled to get its way, many claimed.
It’s a startling sentiment, one that prompted us to play the D.C. natsec community’s therapist to see why so many feel this way.
How we got here depends on who you ask. Administration officials say it’ll take more than a year to claw back from the Trump-era depths, and that the first year was both about positioning the country for future successes and racking up wins.
Some insist that América’s problems stem from systemic dysfunctions and geopolitical shifts that are too big for any one administration to solve.
“It’s a very difficult time in history and foreign policy, but the United States has exacerbated it. It made a hard situation far more difficult by what it’s done and what it hasn’t done,” Council on Foreign Relations President RICHARD HAASS told NatSec Daily. Getting Russia and China to heel requires an immense national effort, for example, but the U.S. is so focused on domestic problems and internal divisions that it’s hard to muster a collective effort for those challenges. “There’s no switch you flip” to fix all that, he added.
Others said the world’s problems are simply too complex for administrations distracted by crises to fix. “I think what’s going on is more like frustration. Iran, Russia, China … all of these problems are just sort of stuck – they’re not really solvable,” said the CATO Institute’s JUSTIN LOGAN.
But many insisted the Biden administration deserves some blame for the struggles of 2021.
A European official, who wasn’t authorized to speak publicly with the press, noted the current team’s love of process slowed down America’s responses to key challenges. “Everything was always ‘under review’ … We wanted to talk about China, it was under review. The future of NATO? Under review. How to deal with Russia? Under review,” the official said about early deliberations with U.S. officials, granting that the administration eventually acted decisively once it chose a policy.
NatSec Daily heard repeatedly over the past year that allies are troubled about the direction of U.S. policy, and wary of cozying to the administration. “In U.S. politics, for the first time in a while, it’s clear that ‘América First’ is a longstanding trend. We don’t blame them for that, but that means we have to change our thinking,” the European official told us.
Of course, nothing Biden did would ever satisfy his critics. “Nearly a year into office, President Biden has failed at handling every crisis that’s fallen on his plate,” NIKKI HALEY, the former U.N. ambassador in the Trump administration, told us. “America is still the greatest country in the world, but with Biden’s horrible track record, both our friends and foes have taken notice.”
But to be fair, in foreign and defense policy at least, the Biden administration has at least three more years to accomplish its goals. It’s perhaps too early to claim 2021 a success or failure, seeing as much of what’s happened will take years to satisfyingly judge through the lens of history. But it’s clear that the next years’ landscape poses some extreme challenges, whether that’s a renewed invasion of Ukraine, a forceful takeover attempt of Taiwan, Iran’s steamroll toward enrichment or something else.
“Our theory of American influence in the world is largely predicated on two things — our domestic strength, which President Biden has invested in restoring, and on our alliances and partnerships, which are a force multiplier for our country and a uniquely Américan asset. Both of these are significantly stronger in December 2021 than they were in January 2021,” said ADRIENNE WATSON, a National Security Council spokesperson. “Our theory of Américan influence and power is much more powerful than the one that preceded it.”
As part of the proposed pact – which the Kremlin claims is meant to deescalate tensions on the Russia-Ukraine border – Moscow also wants assurances from NATO that it “will end all military activity in Ukraine and elsewhere in Eastern Europe, Central Asia and the Caucasus,” as well as “remove all military infrastructure installed in Eastern Europe after 1997,” Kramer writes.
Meanwhile, NATO Secretary General JENS STOLTENBERG confirmed the alliance had received the terms of Russia’s proposal Friday, per The Associated Press. He made clear “that any dialogue with Russia would also need to address NATO’s concerns about Russia’s actions, be based on core principles and documents of European security, and take place in consultation with NATO’s European partners, such as Ukraine.”
White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters that U.S. officials “have seen the Russian proposals,” and that “we’re discussing them with our European allies and partners.” But she emphasized that “there will be no talks on European security” without the Europeans at the negotiating table.
“We will not compromise the key principles on which European security is built, including that all countries have the right to decide their own future and foreign policy free from outside interference,” she said.
The U.S. has long said that Georgia and Ukraine could make their own decisions about joining NATO or not, and the Biden administration doesn’t want to go back on that commitment – or at least not have Russia force such a shift.
A senior administration official told reporters today that it’s not in Russia’s interest to delve deeper into the Ukraine conflict.
“Let’s remember that Russia has one of the highest Covid levels in the world. The Russian people don’t need a war with Ukraine. They don’t need their sons coming home in body bags. They don’t need another foreign adventure. What they need is better health care, building better roads, schools, economic opportunity, and that’s what the polling is showing in Russia. so we hope that President Putin will take this opportunity for diplomacy and will also listen to the needs of his own people,” the official said.
Meanwhile, the White House is debating sending military equipment – like helicopters once bound for Afghan troops – to Ukraine to bolster that country’s defenses, The Wall Street Journal’s VIVIAN SALAMA, MICHAEL GORDON and GORDON LUBOLD reported Friday.
FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY – CHINA EXPANDING KEY PLA FACILITY: The Chinese People’s Liberation Army has expanded installations to boost its ability to track and counter foriegn forces both on Earth and in space, per satellite imagery analyzed by the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Washington, D.C.
The new facilities near Mumian on Hainan Island support the PLA’s electronic warfare (or EW), communications and intelligence gathering capabilities, report MATTHEW FUNAIOLE, JOSEPH BERMUDEZ and BRIAN HART in a blog post seen first by NatSec Daily. Imagery from November 21, though, “reveals the recent construction of several key new assets.”
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Read More: Político – Did 2021 expose América’s limits?
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